Here comes the Bane: why the shocking blockbuster was a win-win. Gardi3

The NBA world finally got the blockbuster they had been clamoring for, except it was not the name they had expected. While the NBA world waited for a Kevin Durant trade or dreamed of Giannis joining their team at 10:08 a.m., Shams dropped the details, and it was official: Our first blockbuster had the Orlando Magic sending out four first-round picks and a Pick Swap for Desmond Bane. While the name was not the one teams were expecting, and while a total of five firsts for Bane sounds like a massive overpay, let me ease the minds of Magic fans who might be worried.

Why is it a win for Memphis

 The core had peaked together. 

Acquired in a draft-night trade from the Boston Celtics, the Grizzlies added 22-year-old Desmond Bane to a young core of players they had selected in the previous two years' drafts: Ja Morant and Jaren Jackson Jr. The trio made quite the impression in Bane's sophomore year, where he doubled his scoring from nine to eighteen points per game, and they dispatched the Wolves in the opening round of the playoffs and took the future champion Warriors to six hard-fought games. 

That 2022 season made one thing look very clear: look out for the next young up-and-coming core in the Memphis Grizzlies. Except it did not work out as planned for the Grizzlies, between injuries to Bane, Jackson, and Ja, and Ja facing off-court issues. The seemingly up-and-coming Grizzlies have not made it past the first round since and have not won a playoff game since the opening round of the 2023 playoffs, missing the following year's postseason and getting easily swept by Oklahoma City this year. With the emergence of Oklahoma City, a young and hungry Rockets team, and a Wemby-led Spurs team, it's clear the core and team in Memphis were getting passed by and needed a change. Internal growth would likely not cut it, since the three teams mentioned were younger and had higher upside talent, with just as much depth, if not more in some cases, as Memphis. 

The offer was too much to resist.

So why move Bane? It's straightforward, the Magic made an offer the Grizzlies could not turn down, the 16th overall pick in this year's draft, 2026 swap rights with either Phoenix or Washington, two more unprotected firsts in 2028 and 2030 and a pick swap in 2029 that is top two protected with that trove of assets and two possible reclamation projects in Kentavious Caldwell-Pope who struggled mightily his first year in Orlando but has been a productive contributor in years past on multiple championship teams and Cole Anthony who has shown flashes as a bench scorer. The Grizzlies now have plenty of avenues to upgrade around their dynamic duo in Ja and Jackson. They can use or flip the picks for more talent and might be able to rehab Pope’s value enough to flip him for picks or use him in the rotation. This gives Memphis much flexibility while clearing Bane's long-term salary from the books. 

Playoff shooting woes. 

Here is the part that might catch some people off guard: Bane is a 39 percent shooter from three and 43 percent from the field in the playoffs. But what if I told you that in his first two playoff runs, he shot 48 percent from the field and 49 percent from three, for a true shooting percentage of 65 percent. However, it has been shaky from an efficiency standpoint for the last two runs, as his field goal clip has dropped from 48 percent to 38 percent, and his old reliable three-ball is only hitting at a 28 percent clip, with a true shooting percentage of 50 percent. To be fair to Bane, the star of Memphis, Ja Morant did not finish either of those playoff series due to injury, but it also became clear something had to change in Memphis, and it happened to be Bane.

Why it's a win for the Magic.

Fills a desperate shooting need

We reviewed Bane's struggles over the last two postseasons amid injuries and uncertainty. Guess what a 28 percent three-point shot would have ranked on the Orlando Magic last postseason? If you said fourth best, with one being Jett Howard, who took only two threes all postseason and made both, you would be correct. How about Bane's 3.3 assists per game? If you guessed he would have been dishing out the third-highest assist average in Orlando, get yourself a cookie. The worst version of Bane would still be their third-best offensive weapon by a comfortable margin, and there are many reasons to believe he's closer to the 39 percent shooter he has been over the last three years and a career 41 percent shooter, rather than the 28 percent shooter on a ten-game sample.

Over the last three years, he has been one of seven players, averaging 20 points and 5 assists while shooting 39 percent from three. Not only are you getting a shooter, but you're also getting a willing distributor. His five assists would have been a team best in Orlando last year, his three-point percentage second-best, and his points per game third-best. Not to mention the three-point percentage is coming off a clip of 7 threes per game, so it's not low volume either. 

The core is young 

Five first-round picks seem like a massive overpay. But remember, not every first-round pick is created equal, so let's break down these picks in more detail. The Magic's number 16 pick in this year's draft is one of two in the first round. Thanks to the Aaron Gordon trade, the Magic also has the Denver selection at pick 25. So while giving up pick 16 hurts, they still have pick 25 to add more young talent in a very deep draft.

The 2026 pick is a mess, but the Grizzlies now get the most favorable pick between the Grizzlies and Magic and the least favorable pick between the Suns and Wizards. Let's say the Wizards get pick 3, the Suns get pick 10, Orlando 21, and Memphis 25, and the Grizzlies would get picks 10 and 21. The only exception is if the Wizards' pick falls out of the top 10; in that case, that selection goes to New York.  

Two first-round unprotected picks in 2028 and 2030, and a pick swap that's top two protected in 2029, round out the rest of the trade package. However, the Magic are equipped with young depth at every position, with the core's oldest player, Bane, at 26. This team should have all its core in their prime throughout this debt, so most likely all the picks will be in the 20s, with the best bet of a lottery being the least favorable of the 2026 swap between Suns and Wizards. 

Also, we mentioned that Pope had a down year in Orlando, but a down year is a massive understatement for the Magic. He was brought in to be a three-and-d piece and help space the floor for Panchero and Franz. He shot 34 percent from three, cratered to 26 percent, including 18 percent on wide-open threes. He hit 40 percent on open threes in the playoffs, but the inconsistent shooting was what he was supposed to come in and help fix. With two years and 42 million dollars remaining on his contract, it was clear it would require the Magic to part with assets to move off his deal. Cole Anthony at 13 million a year is cheaper than Pope, but with his stagnation in development, he was seemingly the odd man out, getting his playoff minutes slashed in both appearances. Moving on from two of the worst contracts for Orlando was baked into the cost. 

No room for more young talent

Jett Howard has struggled to get minutes in Orlando as the 11th pick in the 2023 draft. Cole Anthony, a former 15th overall pick, struggled for minutes before the Suggs injury. This Magic team was getting backlogged with young players who could not get consistent minutes. The odds that picks that fall into the 20s, for the most part, will yield a consistent rotation player for them. So why not consolidate that into one player that will give them quality minutes? Also, when the draft debts are all paid, Banchero will be 27 and Wagner 28, so the duo Orlando is building their team around will be young enough that you can retool when it's all said and done for four years after that and be perfectly fine doing so.  

So, who wins the trade?

The answer is that both teams benefit. The Grizzlies hit their ceiling with the big three they had. While the Magic need some serious firepower on the perimeter and secondary creation, which Bane has been terrific at over the last two years, he has been an underrated star for Memphis, and can fill many needs for Orlando, plus Orlando gets off two of their worst contracts. At the same time, the Grizzlies now have the assets to pivot or build around Ja and Jackson Jr., as they see fit. For my final consensus, this is a rare trade that feels like a win-win for both teams, given all factors.